U Turn on the Long March

U-Turn on the Long March

The March of China is watched by all with awe and anxiety today. At the outset I wish to record my deep appreciation for its ancient civilization, its contribution to humanity and the multi-layered wisdom that it personifies.

Like India, its nationhood, outlook is also an evolving one that makes it more interesting. The current political structure that is edified in China has also evolved from a stark Leninist party structure, to chaotic “cultural” revolutions”, and settled on to Deng’s wealth creation in peace. All nations with Unitarian political structure have an obvious difficult problem. All troubles are blamed on the ruler. Historians will concede that Czar fell because he stupidly refused to share power (read blame) with the Duma. How to manage this predicament? One solution is to brutally suppress the dissent. Enforce strict censorship. Don’t let whisper anybody even in restrooms. Has been tried, never worked. The other option is to let opposing voices within the governing structures have some say and share power. In essence the idea is one “party” is enough as long as the party tent is big enough, provides widest possible representation, have internal buffers for dissent ¹

1989 was a watershed year. Berlin wall came down. The Soviet Union broke down. The list goes on. But there was also Tiananmen Square. All these posed grave long term challenges to the CPC leadership. How to keep the CPC relevant amidst the global sweep for more personal freedom? How to retain the broad trust of the Chinese people in its Government? How to make further progress on unleashing the entrepreneurial spirits of the Chinese? One thing they were clear at the beginning was “We will not become another Soviet union”. Jiang Zemin came with the “3 Represents”.². It meant somewhat equal to the Vedic invocation “aham tatwamasi”. CPC will represent the advanced productive forces (business class), represent advanced culture, and represent the "majority" of the Chinese people. I mean, if there is only one party and it always represents the majority why do you need opposition? All this was carefully orchestrated with a subtle yet noticeable shift in the general doctrinal basis of CPC from Marxist Class Interests to Chinese Nationalism³. So far it has worked very well keeping the predominantly young nation filled with national pride. The return of Hong Kong, Port Macau to Chinese control, 2008 Beijing Olympics, and the script could not have been written better.

The problem is politics does not follow scripts. Internally the process of globalization inside China is widening disparities as would have happened in any capitalist society. So the task of representing the “majority” will become difficult, like trying to paint a rainbow with one color. The recent news about urban labor unrests and shootings are a pointer to the troubles ahead. Next the sudden operatic shift to nationalism has heightened and created pressures within Chinese Military as well as civil society for a speedy re-union with Taiwan and tensions with Japan. The game that China and the US are playing on this issue is very complex and deserves a much detailed analysis. Let it be said that it is not imminent and would not be easy.

In this regard, China is a revisionist power that has scores to settle, that too against powerful enemies. China as official policy has refrained from setting deadlines, but has set a clear benchmark on what it cannot accept: Taiwanese Independence. George W. Bush in the beginning of 2001 said he “would do whatever it takes to defend Taiwan”. It was a very blunt off-message language, which would have made the elder Bush wince and sigh. The inter-straits trade and US-China trade are huge stabilizing factors in this issue but US would like to have the Taiwan card perennially in its hand. China lacks the decisive military force to wrest Taiwan. As a sagacious power it will not venture into any conflict it cannot win.⁴.So there is a mismatch between its overwhelming intention and inadequate capability that is a source for potential internal discontent.

Another major but hugely overlooked factor is how China is managing its state sector enterprises. On the 1st day of my UG stats class, my math lecturer wrote down, “Lies, Damn Lies, Statistics”. If I can go back in time machine, I would add to it “, Chinese Statistics”. Because of the extra ordinary complexity involving its military budgets and state infrastructure, China indulges in quite an amount of obfuscation.⁵. Over the years anticipating huge demands, Chinese state has made some behemoth investments in infrastructure. The point I am trying to make is in other modern economies we have visible performance indicators and people inside and outside can make adjustments, minor or structural commensurate with the level of crisis. With China, we got zilch. So if and when a crisis develops and the confidence internally melts down rapidly, whom will the CPC “represent”? Choices will have to be made. Will it then be willing to use strong arm methods to silence the losers? What if the losers happen to be some among the "advanced productive forces"?

Besides these obvious challenges, one can safely posit that a country with the vastness, historicity and disparateness as China, cannot be “represented” forever by a single group of people, however sagacious they may be. Another theoretical riddle is according to classical Marxism, a society progresses from feudalism to capitalism, creating industrial enterprises, bourgeoisie democratic structures, workers and capitalists. And then it proceeds to Socialism with the overthrow of bourgeoisie by the Proletariat. In the world’s 2 successful “revolutions” this did not happen.⁶.Both Russia and China went from step 1 to step 3. We all know what happened to Russia. Now In China, step 2 is progressing at break neck speed forward and step 3 is retrogressing slowly. Clearly it’s a collision course.

¹ If you invite Harish Khare (who writes for “The Hindu”) to a dinner, offer him 2 rounds of finest malt scotch, I am willing to bet, he will say Congress party is just enough for India. back

² It is still not accorded the status of “theory” or “thought” in Official Chinese Communist Lexicography back

³ China has some national minorities like the Uighurs who create some minor trouble that has been repressed with brutal methods. back

⁴ Barring a bloody nose received from Vietnam in a dispute involving Spratley islands in 1979. back

⁵ For instance, the PLA is allowed to raise hogs and sell excess pork to the public which is claimed as revenue in Chinese defence budget. China also does a lot of investing in Wall Street through front companies. Intrigued by all this, US Congress established a US-China Security review commission to study the security ramifications of US-China trade. back

⁶ It must be said that Marx blessed Russian Revolution well in advance by conceding that it can skip the capitalist phase. He gave his Russian disciples and his own theory a pass on that. back