Case against Modi

The internet ether is saturated with hope and euphoria of Modi fans, amongst whom I could legitimately count myself courtesy of my old set of “poorna ganavesh” lying around somewhere at my parents place in a loft.  But these are not the times for reaction as inert automatons to group stimuli, not the times for wide eyed optimism, but clear eyed thinking.

Before we proceed to case, let us take a look at the state of affairs. The present government has destroyed the brand of a national party and shredded all of its legitimacy. While only its fierce partisans can argue it functions honestly, nobody can argue that it functions effectively. A vast paralysis envelops the government of this nation - this young nation of 1.2 billion people – which can ill afford to waste a minute of governance, a rupee of resource or a sliver of opportunity.  The dealers and brokers who have invented and propped up this new financial product of low risk and high return are taking their final profits out, while the conscientious dhoti clad Moily and Anthony silently preside over. The dalal town that our national capital has become is in desperate need for more party jaunts and Rs.1Crore cars. Our ever so friendly neighborhood is being extra friendly in coming in uninvited and taking over our unmanaged estates.  Upon this scene is where Modi is awaited, the knight in shining armor, man of our times to rescue this nation and set it on the right path and lead it to victory.

He says he will bring the experience of development, a national purpose and a sense of vision with his leadership. My pique is not that Modi is incapable of governing, his experience proves otherwise, or that he is dishonest, evidence to the contrary absent– but he is likely to exert his full energy in the direction of what he is planning to do.  My pleading is such exertion is likely to exacerbate the crisis we are going through, create new difficulties and complicate our national journey.

Let us take it one by one. What is the difference between Manmohanamics and Modinomics? To sum up, the difference is only a promise of efficiency and hope of impartial administration. What economic policy of Manmohan has he differed with? In building big dams? In creating vast industrial complexes causing millions to migrate out and many more millions to migrate in, to create concentration of power, resources and markets?  In hallowing out the interior peasantry of the country, devastate the agriculture and force millions into doubtful migratory employment in the new ambulatory industrial sites? Manmohan Singh and Modi are driven by the same thing - the spirit of Montek Singh Ahluwalia aka Washington Consensus.  Modi’s USP is his speed of execution.  World’s biggest petrochemical complex, and Westinghouse willing, the biggest nuclear power plant are to be found in Gujarat.

However India is at crossroads, where it has to seriously rethink the western industrial model of development characterized by accumulation of resources at a few centers in this continental sized country that will inescapably lead to centralization of money power with its attendant risk of wider exploitation of the masses and the lasting damage to democracy. Should we consider resisting this mad rush to become a China or a South Korea, Modi’s role models?  But we still have the wisdom of that man who asked the British to leave, not for the sake of going away because he is from a faraway island, but for the sake of stopping the destruction of our masses caused by the modern industrial accumulation of production and distribution financed by greed - greed that was foreign and domestic. There is no evidence that Modi has heard this argument or much less he concedes some validity to it.

With his singularly inept managerial skills Manmohan, having outsourced the political skills to the corrupt and irresponsible, has brought bad name to the Indian project of pursuing Western style capitalism in a democratic framework.  This should be a propitious occasion for a rethink on the whole project, at least in India. Sadly this opportunity for change is being utilized by a more forceful proponent of the same model who only promises more vigor and rectitude in its implementation.  The plain evidence of our overcrowded, over polluted unlivable cities fueled by expensive hydrocarbons procured from precarious sources and financed by debts stolen from future generations has not given Modi a pause. He convinced Tata to relocate the small car factory to his state. By successfully executing ‘the project’ Modi will bring the nation closer to the precipice faster. This is not to accuse him that he will dictatorially achieve this, the majority of ‘common opinion’ is with him and may continue to be with him, but those who are convinced of the failure of the model itself and not just Manmohan’s execution, cannot rejoice in his success as it will spell India’s doom.

The next case I make is the last few years of Manmohan’s rule have made it clear that India should seek and value transparency in the administration more than efficiency. Because if the administration is corrupt as Manmohan’s has been undoubtedly, the remedy lies in the people discovering it faster. If the administration is corrupt, efficient and not transparent, it can continue to be efficiently corrupt. The present prime minister’s final trump card was [is ?] his personal incorruptibility. We all know how that led us to 2G, Coalgate, Commonwealth games etc.  Modi enjoys the same reputation. He will however head a vast administrative bureaucracy over which he will have acute absolute control over a very small group and vast notional control over the rest. His personal incorruptibility is unlikely to be a greater factor as to exert its positive influence on the probity of whole of administration than a general culture of transparency which when adopted or forced by people, the latter more likely, is a surer guarantor of probity in a much more effective way. But the style of functioning on Modi is personality oriented, that is to say Modi-oriented.  There is no team nor do we hear Modi giving credit to anybody in his team. This cannot happen with the national power.  Such a concentration of power in one person’s hand for the whole of India happened only once in the last 100 years. The results were not pretty.  Lord Acton’s must have uttered his dictum in some auspicious time as it still holds valid.

The next case is the danger his sense of certitude and decisiveness brings to the situation. These are likely to be valuable assets at a time of national rejuvenation and reconstruction. India will be well served by those qualities in a leader. However we live among two nuclear neighbors.  China, our bigger neighbor with 4 times the size of our economy and militarily the much stronger of us has designs on our border areas. We don’t know if those designs are the symptom of what it considers our inevitable future rivalry or they are issues on their own.  China has built a vastly superior mechanized mobile force served well by extensive border networks of roads and railways in Tibet over the last 20 years. With this it has eliminated the ‘so-called theatre’ superiority our forces enjoyed in the Himalayan theater post 67. With the building of more airfields it will also dent the superiority of our air force in the near future. After that with the initiative of surprise in hand, it will wage an organized effort under the nuclear threshold to get what it wants.  Our options will be sorely limited as we have not prepared ourselves.

As we struggle to symmetrically respond and counter Chinese moves there is every danger of this escalating into a wider conflict. In that scenario, psychologically the stronger of us, China may double dare us. Modi, who believes in his determination might lead the nation to a wider war, when we are not prepared. This again is a conjecture, but it is likely, that to preserve the “honor” and “dignity” and his image he might lead [drag] the nation to a state to which it can be transported psychologically but not logistically. Mikail Ilarianovich Kutuzov is unlikely to be Modi’s hero, who with the aim of preserving his army, retreated rather than offering battle, so Napoleon could occupy Moscow. The whole of Russia condemned Kutuzov. Still some do. But Borodino vindicated him where the army he thus saved defeated Napoleon. In the event China does not want a total war over our territories but indulges merely in land grabbing ruffianism, with the current international condition it makes eminent sense to keep negotiating by offering minor compromises in the border while we buy time, grow our economy and build up our defenses.  Modi’s psyche is unlikely to lend easily to this this effeminate but practical solution.

Next we come to our much friendly neighbor Pakistan. In the next 10 years Pakistan is likely to face a severe military onslaught by Taliban without from the west and within in NWFP and Punjab. The aim of the Taliban led forces will be the capture of power in Rawalpindi GHQ–Islamabad being a figurehead. In this long drawn out war, GHQ – Political establishment is likely try the 4 Kautilyan stratagems, the first of which is already in progress and unlikely to yield any result. The second strategy of ‘gifts’ might either involve killing innocent Indian lives in spectacular terrorist acts inside India a la Mumbai 2008 to humor them or some quixotic collaborative conquista in Kashmir a la Kargil 1999 with the Pakistan army. Any student of Punjabi history will know that West Punjab has seldom moved to the 3^rd step of “Differentiate” and never to the 4^th step of wielding the stick against its west. It will stick to its creed of “let us leave the ruling and fighting to others and let us focus on living”.

We are in for the revisiting mid 1700s in Pakistani Punjab and Kashmir. A hothead in the Delhi Sultanate will help in Abdali takeover.  Let us elaborate how this will play out. A minor skirmish might start a conflagration. Most likely this will result in India successfully punishing Pakistan, the more charitable eventuality. This will put enormous pressure on the GHQ to retaliate or risk losing power to the Talibs. They might try and God willing fail again. Then the Taliban will take over. Once the Talibs take over the nuclear weapons all bets are off. There will be a traffic jam of NATO, Israel and Chinese expeditions.  I am less inclined to say any of this will be Modi’s fault, but the very presence in the top leadership with Modi’s psyche will cause certain imponderable situations to which he might or might not prove equal. This is not a risk to be taken lightly.

This brings us to the final case – Hindu Muslim Relations in India. If there was any doubt the recent Muzzafarnagar riots prove that the smoldering cauldron of communal distrust and hatred continues to smolder. It is readily available for any malpractioner, internal or external to make use of and light up a few mischievous fire crackers. The only remedy, the long term task of building everlasting bonds and trust between the two communities is paramount for a successful India. People who advise us that this task is dispensable and we can “manage” with a restive and uneasy Muslim community among us are not India’s friends. It is not for political leaders and parties alone, it is the task of every community and individual. This task involves weaning away the young and impressionable Muslim youth away from the Pan-Islamic Wahabbist project  and root them firmly in centuries old local Islamic traditions of Hazrat Nizamuddin and Chishdi of Hindustan. Pakistan has to rediscover its Baba Farid, Waris Shah and Lal Shabhaz as well. Subcontinental Muslims have to learn to bear witness to Islam’s tenets amongst numerous Hindus.  This cannot be a charge against him, but with the preponderant predisposition of Muslim opinion against him, formed rightly or wrongly, Modi is singularly unequipped to head this task politically.  

In conclusion, I believe that while Modi has some excellent qualities and considering the current dispensation offers a shiny and contrasting alternative, however he comes with a baggage of risks and drawbacks , some he can change and some he is not in control of. Euphoric hordes shall ponder . Forewarned is forearmed.